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Ath Bilbao vs Sevilla

Sat 22 Aug 2026, 05:00 UTC · Round 2 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ath Bilbao win: 43.1%

Draw: 34.1%

Sevilla win: 22.8%

Predicted: Ath Bilbao

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 23.7%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 40.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.3

More corners: Ath Bilbao (55.8% home / 44.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Ath Bilbao

Yes

Probability Ath Bilbao wins or draws: 78.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Ath Bilbao Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 34%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score No (76.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Ath Bilbao win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (78.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.